“We’ll hit where we’re not expected.” Where will the Ukrainian army advance?

MOSCOW, October 1 – Novosti, Andrey Kots. After the referendums in the LPR, DPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, the Ukrainian military intensified shelling of peaceful cities. At the same time, Kyiv is actively transferring reinforcements to the front from the central and western parts of the country. Everything suggests that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, inspired by the successes in the Kharkov direction, are preparing a new counterattack. About where to wait for the strike – in the material Novosti.

Get ahead of the reservists

The fact that Kyiv would launch a counteroffensive was clear even in the summer. For several months, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine plugged holes on the front line with hastily trained and poorly equipped territorial defense units mobilized. While the reservists were dying under artillery and air strikes, the personnel units were undergoing training and combat coordination far from the Donbass. In addition, the Ukrainian military was actively trained in a number of NATO countries. It was professional soldiers who attacked in early September in the Kharkov region.
Stele at the entrance to Krasny Liman - Novosti, 1920, 09/28/2022
Red Estuary remains under the control of the allied forces
As a result of the regrouping, the troops of the allied armies withdrew to the DPR and took up defensive positions on the eastern bank of the Oskol River. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, having taken Raisins, continue to rush forward. The most difficult section of the front is near Krasny Liman in the north of the republic. The capture of this city on the important route Slavyansk-Seversk will allow Kyiv to transfer forces further east to advance to Lysichansk and Severodonetsk.
“The situation there is extremely difficult,” says a DPR army officer with the call sign Lyuty. “The city is practically surrounded. The enemy is from the north, west, and south. “According to the latest information, the enemy managed to occupy Drobyshevo and Yampol. Cossacks, servicemen of the 2nd Corps of the LPR and Russian soldiers from the 20th Army are fighting in Krasny Liman.”
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Soldiers of the 208th Cossack regiment of the People's Militia of the LPR near positions on the outskirts of Krasny Liman in the DPR - Novosti, 1920, 09/30/2022
Soldiers of the 208th Cossack Regiment of the People’s Militia of the LPR near positions on the outskirts of Krasny Liman in the DPR
The recent assault of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, undertaken on this sector of the front, failed. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, “the losses of the 66th and 93rd mechanized brigades amounted to more than 70 people killed, four tanks, six infantry fighting vehicles and three armored vehicles.”
According to the military, the Red Liman garrison is repelling attacks one after another. The density of defensive orders here is much higher than it was in the Kharkiv region – it is no longer so easy for mobile groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on light armored vehicles to break into gaps and seize bridgeheads for the main forces. But the enemy does not take into account the losses. Evidently, Kyiv is trying to build on its success and win back as much territory as possible before the autumn thaw and before the trained Russian reservists arrive at the front.

Traffic near Donetsk

The situation is also aggravated on the borders of the LPR. The official representative of the People’s Militia of the Republic, Ivan Filiponenko, noted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have stepped up along the entire front line. The cities of Alchevsk, Perevalsk, Kremennaya and Bryanka are regularly shelled. The fire is carried out from the American HIMARS MLRS and artillery mounts of NATO caliber 155 millimeters.
Fragments of shells fired by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk - Novosti, 1920, 09/30/2022
Ukrainian troops shelled Donetsk again with NATO shells
To the south of Krasny Liman, the battles for Artemovsk continue. Allied troops advance on Zaitsevo and Otradovka. Earlier, the assault units of the Russian army entrenched themselves in the industrial zone of Artemovsk and thus created a springboard for further operations in the city. The enemy gathered here an impressive grouping – about ten thousand bayonets. However, these troops are on the defensive, there are no signs of preparing an offensive.
At the same time, in the central sector of the front in the DPR, in the area of ​​​​Marinka, Svetlodarsk, Krasnogorovka and Opytny, intelligence captures the buildup of forces of the Kyiv regime. In addition, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have repeatedly tried to recapture the village of Peski to the west of Donetsk – to no avail.
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A soldier demonstrates fragments of foreign-made ammunition fired by artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the front line on the outskirts of Krasny Liman in the DPR - Novosti, 1920, 09/30/2022
A fighter demonstrates fragments of foreign-made ammunition fired by artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the front line on the outskirts of Krasny Liman in the DPR
Restless and a little south. The DPR believes that the enemy can advance towards Vuhledar. Fresh troops are constantly being transferred there. This threatens Volnovakha and the Donetsk-Mariupol highway.

southern front

Another direction of the likely counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is Zaporozhye. According to Vladimir Rogov, a member of the main council of the regional administration, the Armed Forces of Ukraine regularly conduct exercises and trainings to capture the ZNPP. According to him, for this purpose, about 450 soldiers of the Special Operations Forces, who were trained by instructors and advisers from NATO countries, arrived in Ukraine. A strike is also possible along the Stepnogorsk-Orekhov-Gulyaipole line in the eastern part of the region on the border with the DPR.
Flag of Ukraine - Novosti, 1920, 09/29/2022
Representative of the mayor’s office: Ukrainian officials of Kherson before the SVO “sawed” the budget
It has been relatively calm in the Kherson direction in recent days, the front has not moved. In early September, the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to counterattack, but they hit the fire bags and retreated, having suffered heavy losses. After that, Kyiv temporarily abandoned the crossing of the Ingulets River and switched to the tactics of shelling with long-range artillery.
However, this does not mean at all that the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is impossible here – the Ukrainian army has proved that it is capable of quickly transferring large groups over long distances. According to experts, Kyiv will give the order to attack in the near future. The exhaustion of NATO’s arsenals is also pushing for this.
MARS2 multiple launch rocket system of the German Armed Forces
“The American media rightly point out that the annual production of shells in the United States by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is fired in two weeks,” says military expert Ilya Kramnik. “In our summer peak, this volume was fired in 12 hours on other days. NATO is faced with a dilemma: either really spin the machine to the fullest, or Ukraine will soon face a shortage of equipment and ammunition.This is fraught, given the fact that Russian warehouses were kept precisely for the worst. ammunition and artillery materiel, we, thank God, do not depend on imports in any way.”
Western countries are verbally ready to continue supplying arms to Ukraine. In fact, not everything is so smooth. Thus, the United States, as part of the next package of military assistance, promised to transfer an additional 18 units of the HIMARS MLRS to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But they decided to buy them from the manufacturer, and not withdraw them from stocks, as before. This means that the process will take several years. And it is far from a fact that hostilities will not end by that time.
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