MOSCOW, October 9 – Novosti. The ruble could sink the most against the dollar and the euro if non-residents receive permission to sell Russian assets, convert proceeds into foreign currency and export it abroad. If this scenario is not realized, by the end of this year the dollar will cost about 69 rubles, and by the end of 2023 – about 75 rubles, Oleg Syrovatkin, a leading analyst at the Otkritie Investments global research department , told the Prime agency.
If the West nevertheless decides to include restrictions on the activities of the NCC in the sanctions package, the Russian currency will also sink. “It is quite possible that sanctions against NCC have not yet been introduced due to the fact that some Western countries continue to depend on imports of Russian goods (for example, fertilizers). However, no one can guarantee that the NCC will not fall under sanctions, for example, next year,” he believes.
In general, the dynamics of exchange rates is determined by supply and demand. So far, the influx of foreign currency to the Moscow Exchange allows satisfying the demand for it, but in the future, exporters’ revenues may be significantly reduced. This will reduce supply, while demand will rise against the background of the resumption of imports. But even in this case, there are no grounds to predict the exchange rate of 100 rubles per dollar, Syrovatkin assured.