Cowardly betrayal, racism, Russian propaganda – such a reaction was caused by the last speech of the Prime Minister of HungaryViktor Orban in Europe and Ukraine. Orban is no stranger – for many years he has been declared in the West by the “Hungarian Putin”, ultra-right and almost a fascist. For defending the interests of the Hungarian people – both within the country, protecting family and religious values, and on the world stage, maintaining relations with our country. European liberals can do nothing with Orbán — he won the parliamentary elections again in the spring (and the total experience of his leadership in Hungary is already 16 years old) — and would long ago have expelled Hungary from the European Union if there was such an opportunity (and there would be no fear that it will hurt European unity). At the same time, Orban continues to say what he thinks. And in his Saturday speech, he diagnosed both the situation around Ukraine and the future of the West. The diagnosis is devastatingly accurate.
The prime minister spoke to the Hungarians – but not in his own country, but in the Romanian Bail-Tushnad. This is a city in Transylvania – one of those areas of historical residence of the Hungarians, which the country has lost over the past century. The Hungarians rightly consider themselves the people most affected by the results of the First World War – they lost two-thirds of their territory. In the same Romania , 1.5 million Hungarians now live – a lot, given that there are less than ten million of them in Hungary itself. National identity and the support of fellow tribesmen are extremely important for the Hungarians – otherwise this people, different from all other Europeans, simply would not have been preserved for a millennium of its life in Central Europe. Therefore, when Orban says that “we are not a mixed race, <…> and we do not want to become a mixed race,” this sounds wild to many modern Europeans, who were raised on disgust for the very concept of a nation, but completely normal for themselves Hungarians. And Orban does not care about the opinion of Europeans – he said bluntly that in those countries where Europeans and non-Europeans mix, there are no more nations. But Hungarians must stick together, Orbán said, to survive the impending trials:
“In order to maintain our national ambitions in the coming difficult period, we must remain together, Transylvania and other areas inhabited by Hungarians in the Carpathian Basin must remain together with the homeland.”
This phrase has already been regarded as a claim to the Ukrainian Transcarpathia, where more than a hundred thousand Hungarians live, but Orban says otherwise. The fact that a serious storm is approaching the West – and he wants to do everything so that the Hungarians pass it without loss and even become stronger.
Back in early February, three weeks before the start of our special operation in Ukraine , Orban came to Putin – and then in the Kremlin he said that Hungary does not want a conflict between Russia and the West, because it has always suffered in such times. After the start of the special operation, Hungary refused to provide its territory for the supply of weapons to Ukraine and announced its categorical disagreement with plans to refuse Russian gas. On the contrary, Budapest wants to increase its supplies this year – and Moscow has already promised to do so.
But Orban understands that the confrontation between the West and Russia is on the rise, and wants to secure his country. He even tries to influence the position of the EU by explaining what is happening in Ukraine now. This part of his speech was extremely specific:
“The Russians have formulated a very clear security demand that Ukraine not become a NATO member and not deploy weapons that can reach Russia. The West rejected it. They didn’t even want to discuss it. If Trump were the American president and Merkel the German chancellor , this war will never But we were unlucky, so now there is a war.In war, the Western strategy is based on four pillars.
Firstly, Ukraine is not alone, it needs Anglo-Saxon instructors, and the country can win the war with Russia with NATO weapons, secondly, sanctions will weaken Russia and destabilize the Russian leadership, thirdly, Europe will be able to manage the economic consequences of sanctions and suffer less than Russia. The fourth element was that the world would line up behind us. Instead, we are sitting in a car with all four tires punctured.
The sanctions did not shake Moscow. It is quite obvious that the West will not win this conflict in this way. Europe is in trouble – economic and political, and four governments have fallen victim: British, Bulgarian, Italian and Estonian. People will face a sharp increase in prices.
It is quite obvious that the war cannot be won in this way. Well, Ukrainians with American training, officers and weapons will never win a war with Russia. Simply because the Russian army has an asymmetrical advantage. Never win wars against the Russians.”
This is a sober analysis from the mouth of a European, addressed to the Europeans, but in European capitals they do not want to hear the one who has been called a dictator and “little Putin.”
But so much the worse for Europe, because Orban states that she already does not have the opportunity to influence the situation:
“When we talk about war, an important question arises: what to do? There will be no peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. American negotiations, there will be no peace.We Europeans cannot be mediators in this because we missed our chance.We missed it when, after Crimea in 2014, there were Minsk agreements with guarantees from France and Germany, but, unfortunately, not managed to ensure their implementation. And the Russians no longer want to negotiate with us. “
Orban himself came to understand what Russia has been talking about for a long time: Europe has lost its geopolitical independence, has become a tool in the hands of the Anglo-Saxons, and is not even capable of defending its own interests. Therefore, we cannot not only trust her, but also conclude any strategic agreements with her. The Russian-European dialogue will resume only when Europe regains its independence, at least relative.
And although Orban offers Europe a new strategy, the goal of which would be peace – “The task of the EU is not to take sides, but to stand between Russia and Ukraine,” he himself does not believe in Europe’s ability to mid-term to change course. And so he predicts an increase in problems for the West:
“We must prepare for 2030, this is the most important horizon. By then, the problems of the Western world will have accumulated. There will be a very serious crisis in the United States. In European countries, an economic downturn is almost inevitable, which can also cause political storms. form: Diplomatic, economic, intellectual and military strength is needed We must stay away from war, migration, gender madness, the global minimum tax and the European recession We managed to stay away from this in 2010 and 2020, we came out of each crisis stronger than when they entered it.”
Orbán is worried about the future of the Hungarians, something that is really important to him and that he can influence. He cannot influence the future of the West as such, and therefore he says what he sees:
“It may well be that this war will defiantly put an end to Western domination, which was capable of creating, in some cases, in various ways, uniting the whole world against someone. <…> A multipolar world order will knock on the door.”
It is already clear that the 59-year-old Orban will undoubtedly remain in the history of Hungary as one of the strongest leaders, although his age allows him to lead his country for many more years. But he never claimed pan-European influence – both because he understands the scale of his country within Europe, and because the globalists have long turned him into a scarecrow for ordinary Europeans as a “dictator”, “enemy of sexual minorities” and “Putin’s friend”. “. Yes, Orban has a certain popularity among the European right and traditionalists – in France and Italy , for example, Donald Trump and the Republicans treat him with sympathy , but this is not enough for a truly serious influence on Western public opinion in general.
But the most interesting thing is that when, decades later, future Europeans will study their history, the history of the collapse of the European Union and European integration, the crisis of values and the way of life itself, it will be Viktor Orban who will remain in memory from the period of the tenth to twenties – as a person who understood everything even then and warned Europe about impending problems, about the inadmissibility of conflict and quarrels with Russia, about the danger of abandoning national identity. “Why didn’t they hear him?” Europeans of the middle of the 21st century will ask. Because they did not want to admit that a Hungarian could understand everything better than a German or a Frenchman, including the interests of a united Europe. Once single – as it turned out later.